Hirsh A G, Williams R J, Mehl P
Transplantation Laboratory, Jerome Holland Laboratory for the Biomedical Sciences, Rockville, Maryland 20855.
Exp Gerontol. 1994 Mar-Apr;29(2):197-204. doi: 10.1016/0531-5565(94)90051-5.
A series of theoretical analyses of mortality were performed on recent data for Mediterranean fruit flies (Ceratitus capitata). Best fit computations were performed using the Marquardt-Levenburg technique on: 1) the classic Gompertz model, 2) the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami (JMA) model from chemical kinetics theory, which is formally a Weibull model, and 3) a hyperexponential gamma distribution model that we developed to help explain the relative success of the JMA model when compared with the Gompertz model. It was found that both the JMA and gamma models deviated from the data by about an order of magnitude less than the Gompertz model for the first few mean fly lifetimes. We discuss likely underlying causes for the success of these models vs. the classic model.
对地中海实蝇（Ceratitus capitata）的近期数据进行了一系列死亡率的理论分析。使用Marquardt-Levenburg技术对以下模型进行了最佳拟合计算：1）经典的冈珀茨模型；2）化学动力学理论中的约翰逊-梅尔-阿夫拉米（JMA）模型，该模型形式上是威布尔模型；3）我们开发的超指数伽马分布模型，用于帮助解释JMA模型与冈珀茨模型相比相对成功的原因。结果发现，在前几个平均果蝇寿命期间，JMA模型和伽马模型与数据的偏差比冈珀茨模型小大约一个数量级。我们讨论了这些模型相对于经典模型成功的可能潜在原因。
