Multi-species risk analysis, species evaluation and biodiversity conservation.

The multi-species conservation approaches starting from Vane-Wright et al. (1991) search for a biologically valid basis to evaluate biodiversity. Such evaluations can be used to optimize reserve boundaries so reserves contain a high level of biodiversity. However, these optimization procedures do not minimize the future loss of biodiversity. We provide a method that can be used to minimize the loss of biodiversity. The method integrates an evolutionary species evaluation with an ecological multi-species risk analysis to estimate the expected loss of phylogenetic diversity. A minimization of this loss will optimize the preservation of phylogenetic diversity.