Predicting the number of herds infected with pseudorabies virus in the United States.

Epidemiologic modeling of the likely herd-to-herd transmission of pseudorabies virus (PRV) was developed to assess the progress and potential for the PRV-eradication program in the United States. The herd-to-herd transmission of PRV over a 20-year period (1993 to 2012) in the United States was simulated under various scenarios, which included variable program-funding levels and variable prevalences. A transition model (Markov process model) was used to predict yearly changes in herd prevalence of PRV infection. Five mutually exclusive states of nature for herds were assumed: uninfected and not vaccinated; uninfected and vaccinated; known to be infected and not vaccinated; known to be infected and vaccinated; and infected, but not known to be infected. Three prevalences for states in the United States were assumed: higher prevalence, moderate prevalence, and lower prevalence. Three funding levels were assumed: no eradication program, continued funding at the current level, and increased funding of 25%. Estimates made by an expert panel for determining probabilities in the state-transition matrices were used. A model also was developed, and was considered to be the most optimistic scenario likely under increased funding of 25%. The most optimistic estimates of the probabilities that still lay within the range of estimates made by the expert panel were used for this model. Only the optimistic transmission matrices allowed for total eradication of PRV.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)