[Projection of new cancer diseases to the year 2002--a contribution to health planning in public health by the Saarland cancer registry].

This paper provides projections of incident cases of malignant neoplasms in Saarland, Germany, between 1988 and 2002. The analyses are based on population forecasts by the National Statistical Office and on age-cohort analyses of cancer incidence data from the population-based cancer registry of the Saarland. Due to dramatic demographic changes and increasing age-specific cancer incidence rates, the average yearly number of total incident cases of malignant neoplasms is projected to increase by 63.1% between 1983-1987 and 1998-2002 in men, with the strongest increase projected for colon cancer (+114.6%). In women, a modest increase (+7.1%) is projected for all malignant neoplasms, with stronger increases for colon cancer (+50.1%), lung cancer (+44%) and breast cancer (+27.4%), whereas decreasing annual numbers of cases are projected for cervical cancer (-51.6%), stomach cancer (-18.5%) and endometrial cancer (-10.2%). The results provide a quantitative basis for health care planning in the Saarland. They may also serve as a rough guide for other parts of Germany for which reliable cancer incidence data are not available.