Becker N G, Motika M
Department of Statistics, La Trobe University, Bundoora Vic., Australia.
Math Biosci. 1993 Nov;118(1):1-23. doi: 10.1016/0025-5564(93)90031-5.
Back-projection is a major tool for assessing the extent of the HIV epidemic. Its application relies on a model for the incubation period of AIDS into which the administration and effect of therapy has been incorporated. We propose a compartmental model with proportional transition rates to describe variation and changes in the duration of the incubation period. The model is easily related to available data and offers fast computation. Its detailed and direct reflection of the administration and effect of therapy makes it relatively easy to ensure that therapy has been accommodated to an appropriate extent. The effect of therapy on back-projection estimates of the HIV epidemic curve is demonstrated with an application to Australian AIDS incidence data.
反向投影是评估艾滋病病毒流行程度的主要工具。它的应用依赖于一个将治疗的实施和效果纳入其中的艾滋病潜伏期模型。我们提出一个具有比例转换率的房室模型来描述潜伏期持续时间的变化。该模型很容易与现有数据相关联，并且计算速度快。它对治疗的实施和效果的详细直接反映使得相对容易确保治疗已得到适当考虑。通过应用于澳大利亚艾滋病发病率数据，展示了治疗对艾滋病病毒流行曲线反向投影估计的影响。
