Multivariate analysis for predicting the presence of bacteria in bile in patients with acute cholecystitis.

OBJECTIVE

to find out whether the presence of bacteria in bile could be predicted accurately from preoperative data in patients with acute cholecystitis.

DESIGN

Prospective open study.

SETTING

University hospital.

SUBJECTS

42 patients undergoing cholecystectomy for acute gallstone cholecystitis.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Correlations between 24 preoperative clinical and laboratory variables, and the incidence of pathogenic organism in bile.

RESULTS

4 of the 24 variables tested were of predictive significance. These were external body temperature on admission, percentage of neutrophils, preoperative white blood cell count, and total serum concentration of bilirubin. When these predictive variables were evaluated in the discriminant analysis equation they had a sensitivity of 92% and a specificity of 100% in predicting positive bile culture.

CONCLUSION

Multivariate discriminant analysis permits accurate preoperative prediction of bile cultures growing pathogens in patient undergoing cholecystectomy for acute cholecystitis.