[Projections of the impact of the smoking habit on the health of the Spanish population and on the potential benefits from its control].

BACKGROUND

Smoking continues to be an important public health problem in Spain. With the aim to know some of the health care consequences derived from the evolution of this habit in the Spanish population and to anticipate the health care benefits which would be a result of intervention on the same the estimations of mortality related with smoking and its control in the next few decades were predicted.

METHODS

Mathematic models of simulation of the effects derived from changes in the prevalence of smoking based on the techniques of attributable risk, the multiplicity of the diseases involved and the time of reversal of the risk of death following health care intervention were used.

RESULTS

In absence of intervention on smoking the number of total deaths by the causes under consideration will, in general, increase, from 1987 to 2020. The reduction of 40% in the prevalence of smoking in adult Spanish smokers over a period of 8 years (1992-2000) would potentially decrease the number of cardiovascular deaths by 6,035, deaths by COPD by 394 and the deaths by malignant tumors studied in the year 2020 by 5,237. By the year 2020 the effects of intervention would, in general, be completely manifest. A part of this reduction of mortality would translate in a gaining of 57,323 real years of life in the year 2020. These benefits are also appreciable, although lesser, in the previous years from the beginning of intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking will continue to be an important public health problem in Spain in the future. The health care benefits which may be derived from correct application of effective control programs of the same would be appreciable.