预测未来 30 年内意大利的吸烟流行率。
Predicting the future prevalence of cigarette smoking in Italy over the next three decades.
机构信息
Environmental & Occupational Epidemiology Unit, Cancer Prevention & Research Institute ISPO, Florence, Italy.
出版信息
Eur J Public Health. 2012 Oct;22(5):699-704. doi: 10.1093/eurpub/ckr108. Epub 2011 Sep 5.
BACKGROUND
Smoking prevalence in Italy decreased by 37% from 1980 to now. This is due to changes in smoking initiation and cessation rates and is in part attributable to the development of tobacco control policies. This work aims to estimate the age- and sex-specific smoking initiation and cessation probabilities for different time periods and to predict the future smoking prevalence in Italy, assuming different scenarios.
METHODS
A dynamic model describing the evolution of current, former and never smokers was developed. Cessation and relapse rates were estimated by fitting the model with smoking prevalence in Italy, 1986-2009. The estimated parameters were used to predict prevalence, according to scenarios: (1) 2000-09 initiation/cessation; (2) half initiation; (3) double cessation; (4) Scenarios 2+3; (5) triple cessation; and (6) Scenarios 2+5.
RESULTS
Maintaining the 2000-09 initiation/cessation, the 10% goal will not be achieved within next three decades: prevalence will stabilize at 12.1% for women and 20.3% for men. The goal could be rapidly achieved for women by halving initiation and tripling cessation (9.9%, 2016), or tripling cessation only (10.4%, 2017); for men halving initiation and tripling cessation (10.8%, 2024), or doubling cessation and halving initiation (10.5%, 2033), or tripling cessation only (10.8%, 2033).
CONCLUSION
The 10% goal will be achieved within the next few decades, mainly by increasing smoking cessation. Policies to reach this goal would include increasing cigarette taxes, introducing total reimbursement of smoking cessation treatment, with a further development of quitlines and smoking cessation services. These measures are not yet fully implemented in Italy.
背景
自 1980 年以来，意大利的吸烟率下降了 37%。这归因于吸烟起始和戒烟率的变化，部分归因于控烟政策的制定。本研究旨在评估不同时期的年龄和性别特异性吸烟起始和戒烟概率，并假设不同情景，预测意大利未来的吸烟流行率。
方法
开发了一个描述当前、前吸烟者和从不吸烟者演变的动态模型。通过拟合模型与意大利 1986-2009 年的吸烟流行率，估计了戒烟和复吸率。使用估计的参数根据以下情景预测流行率：（1）2000-09 年起始/戒烟；（2）起始减半；（3）戒烟加倍；（4）情景 2+3；（5）戒烟三倍；（6）情景 2+5。
结果
维持 2000-09 年的起始/戒烟，在未来三十年中，10%的目标将无法实现：女性的流行率将稳定在 12.1%，男性的流行率将稳定在 20.3%。通过将起始减半和戒烟三倍（女性 9.9%，2016 年；男性 10.4%，2017 年），或仅戒烟三倍（女性 10.4%，2017 年；男性 10.8%，2017 年），可快速实现女性的目标；对于男性，通过起始减半和戒烟三倍（女性 10.8%，2024 年；男性 10.5%，2033 年），或仅戒烟两倍和起始减半（女性 10.5%，2033 年；男性 10.8%，2033 年），或仅戒烟三倍（女性 10.8%，2033 年；男性 10.8%，2033 年），可实现目标；
结论
在未来几十年内，10%的目标将实现，主要是通过增加戒烟。达到这一目标的政策将包括提高香烟税，对戒烟治疗进行全额报销，并进一步发展戒烟热线和戒烟服务。这些措施在意大利尚未得到全面实施。
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