Bongaarts J
Research Division, Population Council, New York, NY 10017.
Science. 1994 Feb 11;263(5148):771-6. doi: 10.1126/science.8303293.
The population of the developing world is currently expanding at the unprecedented rate of more than 800 million per decade, and despite anticipated reductions in growth during the 21st century, its size is expected to increase from 4.3 billion today to 10.2 billion in 2100. Past efforts to curb this growth have almost exclusively focused on the implementation of family planning programs to provide contraceptive information, services, and supplies. These programs have been partially successful in reducing birth rates. Further investments in them will have an additional but limited impact on population growth; therefore, other policy options, in particular measures to reduce high demand for births and limit population momentum, are needed.
发展中世界的人口目前正以前所未有的速度增长，每十年增加超过8亿。尽管预计21世纪增长率会下降，但其规模预计将从如今的43亿增加到2100年的102亿。过去控制这种增长的努力几乎完全集中在实施计划生育项目，以提供避孕信息、服务和用品。这些项目在降低出生率方面取得了部分成功。对它们的进一步投资将对人口增长产生额外但有限的影响；因此，需要其他政策选择，特别是减少高生育需求和限制人口增长势头的措施。
