Quantitative estimates for the effects of AIDS public education on HIV infections.

Previous projections of HIV infection have not accounted explicitly for AIDS public information. The present analysis does so, using computer content analysis of AIDS news stories to make time trend forecasts of both HIV infection and knowledge, attitudes, and sexual behaviors relevant to AIDS. The data show that there was a rapid rise in infections before public information took effect. Then news about AIDS, its modes of transmission and high risk groups led to a 3-4-fold decrease in high risk sex among gay/bisexual men by the late 1980s. The result was a diminished infection rate saving 580,000 to 1.9 million lives. In more recent times, rates of HIV infection are forecast to increase again, although slowly, in small part because people are less prudent and in large part because the pool of infected individuals has greatly expanded.