Declining efficacy of AIDS case list cross-referencing in human immunodeficiency virus look-back: 1981 through 1992.

BACKGROUND

The impact of AIDS case list cross-referencing in human immunodeficiency virus look-back was assessed.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

Post-1977 blood donations from former donors identified by 11 collaborating health departments as having developed AIDS have been traced at Irwin Memorial Blood Centers since 1983. To assess the changing efficacy of AIDS case list cross-referencing in identifying infected donors and recipients, trends in cases reported through December 1992 were analyzed.

RESULTS

Previous donors (n = 638) were identified from 21,917 AIDS case listings, for an overall match rate of 2.9 percent. The rate of detection of previous donors from listings of AIDS cases declined from a peak of 5.3 percent in 1985 to 1.6 percent in 1992. Overall, 86 percent (1824/2122) of donations by persons later reported on AIDS case lists were made prior to January 1983 when risk exclusion measures were initiated. Of the 212 known infected recipients linked to AIDS case list donors, 87 (41%) were previously identified by other look-back approaches. The rate of identification of infected recipients detected exclusively through AIDS case listings declined from a mean of 21 per year from 1984 to 1987 to a mean of 3 per year from 1990 to 1992. No transmissions have been documented from donations prior to 1979.

CONCLUSION

These findings demonstrate the declining yield of AIDS case list cross-referencing as a trigger for human immunodeficiency virus look-back. Continued reevaluation of look-back programs is essential so that their various components may be curtailed when justified.