Risk assessment in practice: a foot and mouth disease control strategy for the European Community.

The European Community (EC) has been a single market for trade in livestock and livestock products since the end of 1992. Previously, some of the Member States of the EC practised routine prophylactic vaccination against foot and mouth disease (FMD), while others banned the use of vaccine. Policy had to be harmonized and the European Commission carried out a risk assessment to determine the best option. The assessment compared the costs and benefits of vaccination and non-vaccination strategies and assumed that, in either case, FMD outbreaks would be stamped out. The costs of vaccination strategy include the cost of prophylactic vaccination and the costs of any outbreaks which might occur. The costs of a non-vaccination policy are largely confined to outbreaks. The risk assessment depended crucially on a prediction of the number of outbreaks which might be expected under either policy; this was based on historical evidence of outbreaks in vaccinating and non-vaccinating EC Member States.