Risk stratification by early exercise testing after an episode of unstable coronary artery disease. The RISC Study Group.

After stabilization of symptoms by medication a predischarge exercise test was performed in 855 men admitted with suspected unstable angina (54%) or non-Q-wave myocardial infarction (46%). Multiple logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the number of leads with ST-depression at exercise, low maximal work load, increasing age and ST-elevation in electrocardiogram at rest had independent prognostic value concerning the risk of myocardial infarction or death during the following year. Therefore a combination of extension of ST-depression and peak work load was used to define 'high and low risk response' at the exercise test. After 1 year the mortality in patients with 'high risk' compared to 'low risk' exercise response was 3.6% and 0% (P < 0.001) and the risk of either myocardial infarction or death was 15.4% and 3.9% (P < 0.0001), respectively. ST-depression, occurrence of angina and low peak load at exercise were independent predictors of future severe angina. After 1 year 29.5% of patients with any of these indicators at exercise had incapacitating symptoms that necessitated referral for coronary angiography compared to 4.8% in the group without these findings (P < 0.0001). The predictive value of the exercise test remained high in subgroups based on inclusion diagnosis, age or findings in electrocardiogram at rest and independently of treatment with beta-blockade, other antianginal medication or aspirin at the time of the exercise test.