Potts D M, Crane S F
International Family Health, London, UK.
Br Med Bull. 1993 Jan;49(1):27-39. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.bmb.a072604.
A strong demand for family planning exists in most developing countries and family size is falling rapidly in many of them. Effective family planning programmes offer a world-wide range of choices (including voluntary sterilisation and abortion) through a variety of distribution channels. Universal access to voluntary family planning can be achieved easily and cheaply by the turn of the century, but only if conservative medical policies are overcome and funding is greatly expanded. The international community faces a genuine choice: if it responds to current opportunities the global population will stabilize at approximately 10 billion or fewer; if it fails, population may grow to 14 billion or more. The difference between these two projections (approximately equal to the present world population of 5.4 billion) may well determine the future of the planet.
大多数发展中国家对计划生育有强烈需求，而且其中许多国家的家庭规模正在迅速缩小。有效的计划生育方案通过多种分发渠道提供了全球范围内的各种选择（包括自愿绝育和堕胎）。到本世纪末，只要克服保守的医疗政策并大幅增加资金投入，就能轻松且低成本地实现普遍获得自愿计划生育服务。国际社会面临一个真正的抉择：如果抓住当前机遇，全球人口将稳定在约100亿或更少；如果错失机遇，人口可能增长到140亿或更多。这两种预测结果之间的差异（大致相当于目前世界54亿的人口数量）很可能决定地球的未来。
