Determinants of heart-lung transplantation outcomes: results of a consensus survey.

Substantial progress has been made in clinical heart-lung transplantation. Although outcomes vary across centers, 1-year patient survival is now 59%. This study was an attempt to assess consensus among transplant program directors regarding the major determinants of patient outcome. In the National Cooperative Transplantation Study we evaluated consensus through a survey of all heart-lung transplant programs active in 1988. Of the eligible programs, 23 (85%) returned completed surveys. Data on the medical and surgical determinants of outcome were analyzed. There was considerable consensus among program directors as to the importance of several factors. The three most critical predictors of favorable outcomes were periodic pulmonary function tests to detect rejection (85.7%), avoidance of use of prednisone during the first 14 days after transplantation (76.2%), and annual left and right heart catheterization with coronary arteriography (76.2%). Several approaches were considered undesirable or unnecessary. These included electrocardiogram as standard rejection monitoring technique (71.4%), cytoimmunological monitoring as standard rejection monitoring technique (66.7%), and routine steroid discontinuation after transplantation (66.7%). On various other treatment approaches there was little evidence of consensus. These included prophylaxis with acyclovir and severe bronchiolitis as a criterion for retransplantation. Although controversial, consensus conferences are one means by which to evaluate technological innovations. Based on their results, practice guidelines can be developed to better inform third-party payers on issues related to transplantation.