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城市地区公共交通的使用:迈向因果模型。

The use of public transportation in urban areas: toward a causal model.

作者信息

Mamon J A, Marshall H

出版信息

Demography. 1977 Feb;14(1):19-31.

PMID:836440
Abstract

In this study, using the statistical models recently introduced by Goodman, we analyze the reasons why individuals choose the car or public transportation for the journey to work and draw out some of the implications of our analysis for public policy. Building on the work of Schnore, we develop a model in which both structural and individual variables are interrelated and show that the structural contexts within which individuals make decisions about their choice are crucial. We also show that, while status differentials are largely accounted for by income differences, male preferences for the automobile tend not to be due either to the structural variables or to income differences. Our findings suggest that present policies designed to induce people to shift to public transportation for the journey to work are not likely to be effective, since they do nothing to alter present cost differentials between the two modes.

摘要

在本研究中,我们使用古德曼最近引入的统计模型,分析了个人选择汽车或公共交通工具上下班的原因,并得出了我们的分析对公共政策的一些启示。在施诺尔工作的基础上,我们开发了一个模型,其中结构变量和个体变量相互关联,并表明个体做出选择决策的结构背景至关重要。我们还表明,虽然地位差异在很大程度上由收入差异解释,但男性对汽车的偏好往往既不是由于结构变量,也不是由于收入差异。我们的研究结果表明,目前旨在诱使人们转向公共交通工具上下班的政策不太可能有效,因为它们无法改变两种出行方式目前的成本差异。

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