Bailey N T
Bundesamt für Gesundheitswesen, Liebefeld, Switzerland.
Math Biosci. 1993 Sep-Oct;117(1-2):221-37. doi: 10.1016/0025-5564(93)90025-6.
An improved version of a previously described compartmental dynamic model for the spread of the HIV virus and AIDS is presented in which the estimation of key parameters depends entirely on the use of good public health data. This means that practical applications to specific regions, using only local data, can be of great value to public health decision makers dealing with local problems. It is assumed that scientific support is available within an interdisciplinary operations research context. The improved model incorporates physicians' delays in reporting AIDS incidence, additional cases revealed by death certificate analysis, and a high-risk core group of HIV positives involving a limited residence time, followed by a low-risk group with extended residence, both groups leading to AIDS cases. The model is hybrid in character in the sense that the HIV infection process with large numbers is deterministic while the incubation process with small numbers initially is stochastic. Applications have been made to Switzerland. Key parameters estimated include, in particular, the actual sizes of the original core groups for gay men and intravenous drug users. Current numbers of circulating HIV positives are also obtained.
本文提出了一个先前描述的用于艾滋病毒和艾滋病传播的房室动力学模型的改进版本，其中关键参数的估计完全依赖于良好公共卫生数据的使用。这意味着仅使用当地数据对特定地区进行实际应用，对于处理当地问题的公共卫生决策者可能具有很大价值。假设在跨学科运筹学背景下可获得科学支持。改进后的模型纳入了医生报告艾滋病发病率的延迟、死亡证明分析揭示的额外病例，以及一个居住时间有限的高危艾滋病毒阳性核心群体，随后是居住时间延长的低危群体，这两个群体都会导致艾滋病病例。该模型在性质上是混合的，即大量人群的艾滋病毒感染过程是确定性的，而最初少量人群的潜伏期过程是随机的。已在瑞士进行了应用。估计的关键参数尤其包括男同性恋者和静脉注射吸毒者原始核心群体的实际规模。还获得了当前艾滋病毒阳性感染者的数量。
