Richmond R L, Kehoe L A, Webster I W
School of Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Australia.
Addiction. 1993 Aug;88(8):1127-35. doi: 10.1111/j.1360-0443.1993.tb02132.x.
Predictors of successful smoking cessation were examined in a randomized controlled trial of 450 smokers who received an intervention by their general practitioner (GP). Pretreatment characteristics predicting outcome at 3, 6 and 12 months and for continuous abstinence to 12 months were determined using logistic regression analyses. Results showed the variables that significantly predicted abstention at 3 months were age and motivation, whereas the predictors at 6 months were socio-economic status, motivation, level of dependence and time spent with smokers. No single predictor emerged at 12 months. Predictors for continuous abstinence to 12 months were age, time spent with smokers and motivation. A model was developed which best describes the likelihood of patients achieving continuous long-term abstinence. The results show that five factors (high motivation level, older age, less time spent with smokers, low dependence level, and higher socio-economic status) together have a 76% accuracy of predicting continuous abstinence to 12 months.
在一项针对450名吸烟者的随机对照试验中，研究人员对全科医生（GP）提供干预措施后成功戒烟的预测因素进行了考察。通过逻辑回归分析确定了预测3个月、6个月和12个月结果以及持续戒烟至12个月的治疗前特征。结果显示，显著预测3个月戒烟的变量是年龄和动机，而6个月时的预测因素是社会经济地位、动机、依赖程度以及与吸烟者相处的时间。在12个月时未出现单一的预测因素。持续戒烟至12个月的预测因素是年龄、与吸烟者相处的时间和动机。开发了一个模型，该模型能最好地描述患者实现持续长期戒烟的可能性。结果表明，五个因素（高动机水平、年龄较大、与吸烟者相处时间较少、低依赖程度以及较高的社会经济地位）共同预测持续戒烟至12个月的准确率为76%。
