Death risk in CAPD patients. The predictive value of the initial clinical and laboratory variables.

The characteristics, survival rate and risk factors associated with death in patients with end-stage renal failure treated with chronic ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) were studied. This is a retrospective study of a cohort of 206 patients, from which the follow-up was complete in 190 patients (92%). Only 16 patients (8%) were lost. The study group is composed of 118 males and 88 females, with a mean age of 39 +/- 15 years. The origin of the renal disease was: unknown in 90 patients (44%); diabetes mellitus in 50 (24%); systemic lupus erythematosus in 16 (8%); obstructive uropathy in 15 (7%); glomerulonephritis in 14 (7%), and miscellaneous in 21 (10%). The average follow-up was 12 +/- 11 months. At the end of study, 66 patients were dead (32%). CAPD was discontinued in 12 (6%). Thirty-eight patients (18%) received kidney transplantation. The survival rate for the whole group was 67 and 48% at 1 and 3 years, respectively. Multivariate survival analysis according to the Cox proportional-hazard model showed that the most powerful predictor associated with high risk of death was low serum albumin levels. According to the Cox model other independent variables significantly associated with increase in the probability of death while on CAPD were advancing age, low serum creatinine concentrations and elevated serum cholesterol levels. These results indicate that the risk factors associated with death in CAPD patients are similar to those observed for hemodialysis patients and suggest that using simple laboratory measurements at the enrollment in CAPD the relative risk of death for each patient can be estimated.