Hunter D J
Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115.
Epidemiology. 1993 Jan;4(1):63-72.
As the epidemic of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in sub-Saharan Africa enters its second decade, much has been learned about the distribution and determinants of the disease and its causative agent, the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Over 6 million people, or 2.5% of the adult population, are thought to be infected with HIV. The distribution of HIV is largely determined by sexual behavior; as for other sexually transmitted diseases, the characteristics of sexual networks determine the extent and rate of spread of HIV. Female sex workers and their male clients are at high risk for HIV and have been important in initiating the epidemic in many African countries. The dynamics of HIV in the rest of the population are complex; men with multiple sexual partners are largely responsible for transmission of HIV to women in the general population. Other sexually transmitted diseases and lack of male circumcision may increase the probability of transmission of HIV during sexual intercourse and probably are partially responsible for the rapid diffusion of HIV in Africa. Interventions among high-risk groups are needed, but they must be accompanied by attempts to induce behavior change among men and women in the general population. Epidemiologic studies of the determinants of sexual behavior and sexual contact patterns, as well the design and evaluation of interventions, are urgently needed. Key areas for development are the study of behavioral exposures and outcomes, the evaluation of interventions, developing new methods for conducting interventions in resource-poor environments, and increasing the number of African scientists with the skills and resources to conduct epidemiologic studies.
随着撒哈拉以南非洲地区获得性免疫缺陷综合征(艾滋病)疫情进入第二个十年,人们对该疾病及其病原体——人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)的分布和决定因素已有了很多了解。据估计,超过600万人,即成年人口的2.5%,感染了HIV。HIV的分布很大程度上由性行为决定;与其他性传播疾病一样,性网络的特征决定了HIV的传播范围和速度。女性性工作者及其男性客户感染HIV的风险很高,并且在许多非洲国家引发疫情方面起到了重要作用。HIV在其他人群中的传播动态较为复杂;有多个性伴侣的男性在很大程度上导致了HIV在普通人群中向女性的传播。其他性传播疾病以及男性未行包皮环切术可能会增加性交时HIV传播的可能性,并且可能是HIV在非洲迅速传播的部分原因。需要对高危人群进行干预,但与此同时,必须努力促使普通人群中的男性和女性改变行为。迫切需要开展关于性行为决定因素和性接触模式的流行病学研究,以及干预措施的设计和评估。发展的关键领域包括行为暴露和结果的研究、干预措施的评估、开发在资源匮乏环境中进行干预的新方法,以及增加具备开展流行病学研究技能和资源的非洲科学家数量。