Neilson S, Robinson I, Hunter M
John Bevan MND Research Unit, Department of Human Sciences, Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex, UK.
Mech Ageing Dev. 1993 Jan;66(3):223-41. doi: 10.1016/0047-6374(93)90010-o.
Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis is an effective method for determining both the pure probability of death for a given condition and the size of inherently susceptible subpopulations [1]. Gompertzian analysis has been used in this study to provide the parameters necessary to construct a stationary population lifetable (static model) of mortality for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and for multiple sclerosis (MS). The static model demonstrates the relative effect of changing general mortality upon the mortality from each specific disease in a situation where interdisease competition is continuously changing. In order to represent mortality in a real population more closely (where age structure is not the result of mortality rates alone) a dynamic model was constructed for both conditions using the age distributions of the population of England and Wales. The quality of the model was verified by comparison of estimated mortality with historical data from the last three decades. The dynamic model has then been used to estimate mortality from each condition over the next three decades on the basis of population projections made by the Central Statistical Office [2], assuming no major change in the factors which lead to either condition. This analysis demonstrates both the theoretical applicability and practical capabilities of Gompertz-derived mortality models for analysing changing mortality patterns.
纵向冈珀茨分析是一种有效的方法，可用于确定特定疾病的纯死亡概率以及固有易感亚群的规模[1]。本研究采用冈珀茨分析来提供构建肌萎缩侧索硬化症（ALS）和多发性硬化症（MS）死亡率的静态人口生命表（静态模型）所需的参数。静态模型展示了在疾病间竞争不断变化的情况下，一般死亡率变化对每种特定疾病死亡率的相对影响。为了更贴近真实人群中的死亡率情况（其中年龄结构并非仅由死亡率导致），利用英格兰和威尔士人口的年龄分布为这两种疾病构建了动态模型。通过将估计死亡率与过去三十年的历史数据进行比较，验证了模型的质量。然后，基于中央统计局[2]做出的人口预测，在假设导致这两种疾病的因素无重大变化的情况下，使用动态模型估计未来三十年每种疾病的死亡率。该分析展示了冈珀茨衍生的死亡率模型在分析变化的死亡率模式方面的理论适用性和实际能力。
