Mimra J, Farník J
Okresní hygienická stanice Sokolov.
Cesk Epidemiol Mikrobiol Imunol. 1993 Mar;42(1):7-11.
Based on the long-term follow-up of the incidence of some infectious diseases in the district and calculations of the actual number of infected subjects, the authors present an estimate of the ratio of susceptible and immune subjects during the unimpaired epidemic process. The epidemic process develops from the lowest range of immune subjects and stops at the highest range. The highest range thus gives the ratio of immune subjects which must be achieved or maintained by active immunization to achieve elimination of a given infection. The authors demonstrate on the model infection the mechanism by which after immunization the shift of infections to higher age groups occurs, and during introduction of the infection not only contact infections occur, but epidemic incidence develops. The restoration of some infections after years of elimination is to a restricted extent a natural phenomenon and does not imply failure of active immunization.
基于对该地区一些传染病发病率的长期跟踪以及对实际感染病例数的计算，作者给出了在未受干扰的流行过程中易感人群与免疫人群比例的估计值。流行过程从免疫人群的最低比例开始发展，并在最高比例时停止。因此，最高比例给出了必须通过主动免疫来达到或维持的免疫人群比例，以实现消除特定感染。作者在模型感染中证明了免疫后感染向更高年龄组转移的机制，并且在引入感染时不仅会发生接触性感染，还会出现流行发病率。经过数年消除后某些感染的再次出现，在一定程度上是一种自然现象，并不意味着主动免疫失败。
