Guest C S, Lee S E, Ferguson M P, Urquhart N L, Taylor H R
Department of Ophthalmology, University of Melbourne, Victoria.
Aust N Z J Ophthalmol. 1993 Feb;21(1):43-7. doi: 10.1111/j.1442-9071.1993.tb00129.x.
To investigate demographic aspects of the access to services at the Royal Victorian Eye and Ear Hospital (RVEEH), routine registration records on outpatients were linked to the population of state health regions, the distribution of ophthalmologists and projected population growth. In the six-month period September 1990 to March 1991, 19,339 persons came to the hospital (Emergency Department or Outpatients) at least once with an eye problem. Most (93%) lived in the Melbourne metropolitan area. The largest group (40%) came from Health Region 6, the Western Metropolitan region, which also has the lowest density of ophthalmologists in Victoria (1.6 per 100,000 total population, excluding ophthalmologists in the central business district of Melbourne). In the sample, 7243 patients (37%) were aged 65 years or older. Of these older patients, 75% had multiple visits to the hospital for a given illness, compared with 30% in younger patients (P < 0.01). By application of projected age-group growth rates in the Victorian population to the current profile of RVEEH outpatients, we forecast a 32% increase in the number of outpatients attending the hospital over the 15 years to 2006, 10% more than the projected population growth of 22% over this period.
为了调查皇家维多利亚眼耳医院（RVEEH）的服务可及性的人口统计学方面，将门诊患者的常规登记记录与州健康区域的人口、眼科医生分布以及预计的人口增长情况相联系。在1990年9月至1991年3月的六个月期间，19339人因眼部问题至少一次前往该医院（急诊科或门诊）。大多数人（93%）居住在墨尔本大都市区。最大的群体（40%）来自健康区域6，即西部大都市区，该区域也是维多利亚州眼科医生密度最低的地区（每10万总人口中有1.6名，不包括墨尔本中央商务区的眼科医生）。在样本中，7243名患者（37%）年龄在65岁及以上。在这些老年患者中，75%因某种疾病多次前往医院就诊，而年轻患者中这一比例为30%（P<0.01）。通过将维多利亚州人口预计的年龄组增长率应用于RVEEH门诊患者的当前情况，我们预测到2006年的15年期间，前往该医院就诊的门诊患者数量将增加32%，比同期预计的22%的人口增长多10%。
