McCallum H I
Department of Zoology, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Australia.
Rev Sci Tech. 1993 Mar;12(1):83-93. doi: 10.20506/rst.12.1.671.
Sudden, large-scale infestations of house mice (Mus musculus domesticus) occur irregularly in the cereal-growing regions of Australia, resulting in substantial economic losses. Mathematical modelling has been used to evaluate the use of the liver nematode Capillaria hepatica as a potential agent for the biological control of mouse populations. The models suggest that C. hepatica is unlikely to be successful as a single-release control agent: instead, the parasite would need to be released when it becomes apparent that an outbreak is likely. Stage-structured models, including time delays and seasonal mouse demographic parameters, suggest that the parasite may be successful as a control agent, provided it can be introduced into the mouse population at least one year before an outbreak occurs. The optimum time for introduction is in summer or autumn. Some generalisations of this work are discussed. A parasite which affects fecundity alone is unlikely to be a good control agent, because it will destabilize the host population. Macroparasites may be unable to spread sufficiently rapidly to control sudden rises in vertebrate populations.
家鼠(小家鼠)在澳大利亚谷物种植区会突然大规模滋生,这种情况不定期发生,会造成重大经济损失。数学建模已被用于评估肝毛细线虫作为控制鼠类种群的潜在生物制剂的效用。模型表明,肝毛细线虫作为单次释放的控制剂不太可能成功:相反,当有明显的暴发可能时,就需要释放这种寄生虫。包含时间延迟和季节性鼠类种群统计学参数的阶段结构模型表明,只要能在暴发发生前至少一年引入鼠类种群,这种寄生虫作为控制剂可能会成功。引入的最佳时间是夏季或秋季。本文讨论了这项工作的一些普遍情况。仅影响繁殖力的寄生虫不太可能是一种有效的控制剂,因为它会破坏宿主种群的稳定性。大型寄生虫可能无法足够迅速地传播以控制脊椎动物种群的突然增长。