Stheeman S E, van 't Hof M A, Mileman P A, van der Stelt P F
Department of Oral Radiology, Academic Centre for Dentistry Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Community Dent Health. 1995 Dec;12(4):194-9.
The Delphi technique is a method for obtaining answers to questions that are issues of uncertainty even to experts. The aim of this study was to use the Delphi technique to develop two standards for the assessment of the diagnostic performance of dentists using radiographs. Two Delphi consensus procedures were initiated to determine the presence of visible abnormalities on radiographs and their pathological nature. A panel of expert radiologists was independently selected. This panel reached consensus on the items of both Delphi procedures through a number of rounds of written correspondence. The outcomes of the procedures were compared to a histopathologic norm for the presence of pathology. The group procedure was described as well as tested for dominance on part of any of the individual panellists. It was found that up to 98 per cent agreement occurred among the majority of panellists on items of the procedures. The panellists were significantly better than dentists in the diagnosis of pathology (P < 0.05) and kept improving during the process of consensus formation. In neither of the Delphi procedures was the judgement of any panellist dominant (P > 0.4). It is concluded that, if carefully controlled, the Delphi technique may be used in the development of diagnostic standards in oral radiology.
德尔菲法是一种获取问题答案的方法，这些问题即使对专家来说也是存在不确定性的问题。本研究的目的是使用德尔菲法制定两项评估牙医使用X光片进行诊断的标准。启动了两轮德尔菲共识程序，以确定X光片上可见异常的存在及其病理性质。独立挑选了一组专家放射科医生。该小组通过多轮书面通信就两项德尔菲程序的项目达成了共识。将程序的结果与病理学存在的组织病理学标准进行了比较。描述了小组程序，并测试了任何小组成员的主导地位。结果发现，大多数小组成员在程序项目上的一致率高达98%。小组成员在病理学诊断方面明显优于牙医（P<0.05），并且在达成共识的过程中不断进步。在两项德尔菲程序中，没有任何小组成员的判断占主导地位（P>0.4）。结论是，如果仔细控制，德尔菲法可用于口腔放射学诊断标准的制定。
