Milne E, Whitty P
Newcastle and North Tyneside Health Authority, Newcastle upon Tyne.
Arch Dis Child. 1995 Dec;73(6):505-7. doi: 10.1136/adc.73.6.505.
A study of paediatric intensive care usage and need was undertaken in the former English Northern region to define appropriate local provision in the light of apparently conflicting published evidence. It was hypothesised that daily bed need would follow a Poisson distribution. All admissions of children aged less than 15 years who required intensive care in the region were recorded retrospectively for the financial year 1993/4. The mean number of beds occupied was 11.7 per day, which is equivalent to 20.7 beds per million children per day. The distribution of numbers of beds used mirrored a Poisson distribution closely, and the predicted bed requirement to cover 95% of days in the year was in agreement with that observed. Review of recommendations for paediatric intensive care provision from other studies suggests that apparent differences arise largely from the effect of different sizes of population served, and that, when allowance is made for this, underlying rates of bed requirement are strikingly similar, with a mean of around 20 per million children per day. A formula is given for the application of this model to local populations.
在前英国北部地区开展了一项关于儿科重症监护使用情况和需求的研究，以便根据明显相互矛盾的已发表证据确定适当的当地服务提供情况。研究假设每日床位需求将遵循泊松分布。对1993/4财政年度该地区所有15岁以下需要重症监护的儿童入院情况进行了回顾性记录。每日占用床位的平均数为11.7张，相当于每百万儿童每天20.7张床位。使用床位数量的分布与泊松分布非常相似，并且预测的覆盖一年中95%天数的床位需求与观察到的情况一致。对其他研究中关于儿科重症监护服务提供的建议进行审查表明，明显的差异主要源于所服务人口规模不同的影响，并且在考虑到这一点后，潜在的床位需求率惊人地相似，平均约为每百万儿童每天20张。给出了将该模型应用于当地人口的公式。
