Robinson N J, Mulder D W, Auvert B, Hayes R J
INSERM Unit 88, National Hospital of Saint-Maurice, France.
AIDS. 1995 Nov;9(11):1263-70. doi: 10.1097/00002030-199511000-00008.
To assess the likely impact on HIV incidence of increased condom use, a reduction in casual sexual partners, treatment programmes for other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and combinations of these in rural Uganda.
A simulation model for the transmission dynamics of HIV infection and STD was employed, drawing on data from a rural population cohort in South-West Uganda with an HIV prevalence of 9% among adults in 1990.
For the scenario most consistent with data from the study population, 39% of all adult HIV infections were averted, in the 10 years from 1990, when condoms were used consistently and effectively by 50% of men in their contacts with one-off sexual partners (such as bar girls and commercial sex workers). Reducing by 50% the frequency of men's sexual contacts with one-off partners averted 68% of infections. Reducing by 50% the duration of all STD episodes averted 43% of infections. Combining these three interventions averted 82% of all adult infections in the 10 years from 1990.
A substantial proportion of HIV infections may be averted in general populations through interventions targeted only on less regular sexual partnerships.
评估在乌干达农村地区增加避孕套使用、减少临时性性伴侣、开展其他性传播疾病（STD）治疗项目以及这些措施的组合对艾滋病毒发病率可能产生的影响。
采用了一个艾滋病毒感染和性传播疾病传播动力学的模拟模型，数据来源于乌干达西南部的一个农村人口队列，1990年成年人中的艾滋病毒流行率为9%。
对于与研究人群数据最相符的情景，在1990年起的10年里，当50%的男性在与一次性性伴侣（如酒吧女郎和商业性工作者）接触时始终如一地有效使用避孕套时，所有成年艾滋病毒感染中有39%得以避免。男性与一次性伴侣的性接触频率降低50%可避免68%的感染。所有性传播疾病发作的持续时间缩短50%可避免43%的感染。将这三种干预措施结合起来，在1990年起的10年里可避免82%的所有成年感染。
通过仅针对不太固定的性伴侣关系进行干预，一般人群中相当大比例的艾滋病毒感染可能得以避免。
