The use of children's medical records to predict the risk of asthma attack.

Using a large data base of respiratory morbidity in children the opportunity arose to explore the link between what was written in general practice case records and the subsequent risk of a child developing an asthma attack or hospital admission due to asthma. Children with five or more consultations in one year for respiratory symptoms had a 33% risk of experiencing an asthma attack or 7.1% risk of admission in the following year. Twenty seven percent of children who received antibiotics for "respiratory infections" subsequently had an asthma attack. The potential exists to review past and present symptoms and thus attempt to predict future morbidity. Childhood asthma is an example where the quality of care offered by general practitioners could be improved if a precise estimate of risk could be used to modify clinical management.