A vital statistics-based procedure for estimating conception rates.

A method for estimating conception rates, using vital statistics data, is developed and applied to data on five-year age groups of California women for 1971. The approach is deterministic and allocates total exposure time to the known pregnancy outcomes of live birth, spontaneous abortion, and induced abortion. The population at risk is defined to exclude women who are known to be sterile or sexually inactive. Early fetal loss, premarital conception, and contraceptive use are taken into account. Estimates are made of the fecundability which would obtain if no contraception were used.