Ravdin P M
Division of Oncology, University of Texas Health Sciences Center, San Antonio, 78284, USA.
Semin Oncol. 1996 Feb;23(1 Suppl 2):43-50.
This report describes a computer program designed to assist health care professionals in making projections of the average benefit of systemic adjuvant therapy for individual breast cancer patients. It requires as input patient age (used to make projections of natural mortality), an estimate of breast cancer-related mortality at 5 years (used to make projections of breast cancer-specific mortality), and the proportional risk reduction for breast cancer mortality expected for the adjuvant therapy (with included tables from the Early Breast Cancer Trialist's 1992 meta-analysis). The program uses life table analytical techniques to make projections of outcome in three scenarios: that the breast cancer never occurred, that the breast cancer patient received definitive local therapy but no adjuvant systemic therapy, and that the patient received adjuvant therapy. The outcome projections are given for total, natural (non-breast cancer-related), and breast cancer-related mortality at several time points and also of total remaining life expectancy. These estimates are currently widely made by clinicians by nonnumerical techniques. Computer-based tools can serve as valuable aids in physician and patient education and in the process of informed decision making.
本报告描述了一个计算机程序，该程序旨在协助医疗保健专业人员预测个体乳腺癌患者全身辅助治疗的平均获益情况。它需要输入患者年龄（用于预测自然死亡率）、5年时乳腺癌相关死亡率的估计值（用于预测乳腺癌特异性死亡率）以及辅助治疗预期的乳腺癌死亡率成比例降低值（包括1992年早期乳腺癌试验者荟萃分析中的表格）。该程序使用生命表分析技术在三种情况下预测结果：乳腺癌从未发生、乳腺癌患者接受了确定性局部治疗但未接受辅助全身治疗、患者接受了辅助治疗。给出了几个时间点的总死亡率、自然（与乳腺癌无关）死亡率和乳腺癌相关死亡率以及总剩余预期寿命的结果预测。目前临床医生广泛使用非数值技术进行这些估计。基于计算机的工具可作为医生和患者教育以及知情决策过程中的宝贵辅助工具。
