Roth K S, Riley W T, Brandt R B, Seibel H R
Department of Pediatrics, Virginia Commonwealth University Medical College at Virginia School of Medicine, Richmond 23298, USA.
Acad Med. 1996 Feb;71(2):176-80. doi: 10.1097/00001888-199602000-00026.
To examine the relationship between the objective premedical credentials and performances on Step 2 on the United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) of 480 students in three classes at the Virginia Commonwealth University Medical College of Virginia School of Medicine. The purpose of the study was to seek those selection criteria that might best predict performance on an examination designed to assess problem-solving skills, the essence of clinical medicine.
Premedical data from two classes (1193, 1994) were analyzed, and a regression equation was used to calculate theoretical USMLE Step 2 scores for the students in the class of 1995, who had not yet taken this examination. The premedical variables were scores on the verbal and math section on the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT), scores on the six sections of the pre-1991 Medical College Admission Test (MCAT), grade-point average (GPA) in science courses required of premedical students, and undergraduate major. Once the class of 1995 had taken the USMLE Step 2, the equation was cross validated, and the theoretical and actual scores of the class of 1995 were correlated.
The correlation between theoretical and actual scores was r = .443. In the analysis for the classes of 1993 and 1994, the single variables most highly predictive of USMLE Step 2 performance were scores on the verbal section of the SAT (r = .317) and the Skills Analysis: Reading section of the MCAT (r = .331). However, the MCAT scores were excluded from the final regression analysis because of the pre-1991 MCAT cannot be useful in predicting the performances of present medical school applicants. The resulting regression equation (using the SAT verbal section and premedical GPA) was able to account for 21.2% of the variance for the class of 1995.
The use of the verbal section of the SAT as a predictive factor is unique. It is significant that this variable was strongly related to premedical GPA, suggesting that high verbal aptitude serves one well, even when coping with complex scientific concepts.
研究弗吉尼亚联邦大学医学院弗吉尼亚医学院三个班级的480名学生的医学预科客观成绩与美国医师执照考试（USMLE）第二步考试成绩之间的关系。该研究的目的是寻找那些最能预测旨在评估解决问题能力（临床医学的核心）的考试成绩的选拔标准。
分析了两个班级（1993年、1994年）的医学预科数据，并使用回归方程计算了1995年尚未参加该考试的学生的理论USMLE第二步考试成绩。医学预科变量包括学术能力评估测试（SAT）语言和数学部分的成绩、1991年前医学院入学考试（MCAT）六个部分的成绩、医学预科学生所需科学课程的平均绩点（GPA）以及本科专业。1995年班级参加USMLE第二步考试后，对方程进行交叉验证，并将1995年班级的理论成绩与实际成绩进行关联。
理论成绩与实际成绩的相关性为r = 0.443。在对1993年和1994年班级的分析中，最能预测USMLE第二步考试成绩的单一变量是SAT语言部分的成绩（r = 0.317）和MCAT技能分析：阅读部分的成绩（r = 0.331）。然而，由于1991年前的MCAT对预测当前医学院申请者的表现没有帮助，因此最终回归分析中排除了MCAT成绩。由此得出的回归方程（使用SAT语言部分成绩和医学预科GPA）能够解释1995年班级21.2%的方差。
将SAT语言部分用作预测因素很独特。这个变量与医学预科GPA密切相关，这一点很重要，表明即使在处理复杂的科学概念时，高语言能力也很有帮助。
