Allogenic bone marrow transplantation or chemotherapy for patients with acute myeloid leukemia in first complete remission: a decision analysis approach.

The methodology of decision analysis was originally developed to improve clinical decisions of physicians for individual patients. However, it is also well suited to support consensus procedures. We have used this methodology to analyse the question whether allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT) or consolidation chemotherapy (CCT) should be used as first line postremission treatment in patients with acute myeloid leukemia. Main risk factors relevant for the outcome after BMT and CCT are therapy-related mortality and leukemic relapse, respectively. If the possibility of salvage BMT for patients relapsing after CCT is included, the outcomes of the two strategies come rather close. However, they are clearly different in subtypes of leukemia with high or low risk of relapse, and in patients at high risk for BMT-related mortality. Sensitivity analysis considering the variation of more than one risk factor provides valuable information for decision making for both individual patients and particular subgroups of patients with acute myeloid leukemia.