Presidential address, 1995. Surgery 2000: a look back to the future.

The present demoralized state of Canadian surgery is due to a number of short-term influences. They include financial restraints, the desire of government agencies to off-load blame for unpopular decisions onto doctors and altered public expectations. The major long-term challenge will be a shortage of physicians and a severe shortage of general surgeons because of the superimposition of longer-term trends in medical demographics on short-term political reactions to a perceived oversupply of doctors. General surgeons need to identify the significant, long-term threats and challenges. If they can do this and plan their responses knowledgably, with some measure of altruism, the future in general surgery will be a bright one for present and future residents and medical students.