Varea C, Crognier E, Bley D, Boetsch G, Baudot P, Baali A, Hilali M K
UPR 221 du CNRS, Aix en Provence, France.
J Biosoc Sci. 1996 Jan;28(1):1-13. doi: 10.1017/s0021932000022045.
The determinants of modern contraceptive use in traditional populations are analysed in married women aged 30-44 living in the province of Marrakech (Morocco). Women who have never used contraception have smaller family sizes than those who do: the number of live children (or live births) is the variable with maximum predictive power on contraceptive use, while child mortality is the main inhibiting factor. The probability of contraceptive use increases with female age at marriage and decreases with the woman's age, indicating a generational change in reproductive behaviour. The socioeconomic variables education, employment and residence, have no significant independent predictive character on contraceptive use, although the interaction between education and residence does. The paper evaluates the hypothesis that traditional populations in the initial phase of their demographic transition resort to modern contraception in order to stop childbearing, when they have reached a desired number of children, rather than to space births or reduce their fertility.
对居住在马拉喀什省（摩洛哥）的30至44岁已婚妇女使用现代避孕方法的决定因素进行了分析。从未使用过避孕措施的妇女家庭规模比使用过的妇女小：存活子女数（或活产数）是对避孕使用具有最大预测力的变量，而儿童死亡率是主要抑制因素。使用避孕措施的概率随女性初婚年龄增加而增加，随女性年龄增加而降低，这表明生殖行为存在代际变化。社会经济变量教育、就业和居住状况，对避孕使用没有显著的独立预测作用，不过教育和居住状况之间的相互作用有。本文评估了这样一种假设，即处于人口转变初始阶段的传统人群采用现代避孕措施是为了在达到期望子女数时停止生育，而非为了生育间隔或降低生育率。
