Udjo E O
Department of Demography, University of Botswana, Gaborone.
J Biosoc Sci. 1996 Jan;28(1):25-35. doi: 10.1017/s0021932000022069.
With an unequalled contraceptive prevalence rate in sub-Saharan Africa, of 43% among currently married women in Zimbabwe, the Central Statistical Office (1989) observed that fertility has declined sharply in recent years. Using data from several surveys on Zimbabwe, especially the birth histories of the Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey, this study examines fertility trends in Zimbabwe. The results show that the fertility decline in Zimbabwe is modest and that the decline is concentrated among high order births. Multivariate analysis did not show a statistically significant effect of contraception on fertility, partly because a high proportion of Zimbabwean women in the reproductive age group never use contraception due to prevailing pronatalist attitudes in the country.
在撒哈拉以南非洲地区，津巴布韦已婚妇女的避孕普及率高达43%，位居榜首。中央统计局（1989年）指出，近年来生育率急剧下降。本研究利用津巴布韦多项调查的数据，尤其是津巴布韦人口与健康调查中的生育史，考察了津巴布韦的生育趋势。结果表明，津巴布韦的生育率下降幅度不大，且下降主要集中在多孩生育上。多变量分析未显示避孕对生育率有统计学上的显著影响，部分原因是由于该国盛行生育主义观念，育龄期津巴布韦妇女中很大一部分人从未使用过避孕措施。
