Case R A
Chester Beatty Research Institute, Royal Cancer Hospital, London.
J Epidemiol Community Health. 1996 Apr;50(2):114-24. doi: 10.1136/jech.50.2.114.
A history of cohort analysis has been given, and it has been pointed out that the bulk of the literature on the subject has dealt with concepts that assume either that graduation and possibly extrapolation are desirable, preferably in conformity with some formula expressing what is implicitly accepted as a "law of mortality", or that, whether or not a fixed pattern of mortality exists, the intensity of mortality risk is largely determined in early life. The view is advanced that either concept alone, is, or both concepts together are, inadequate and may lead to an improper assessment of the nature-nurture complex, since environment and therapeutic measures are constantly changing. The plea is made for the technique of cohort analysis to be used as a narrative or historical technique, and for a synthesis of knowledge derived from social history, medical history, and cohort analysis to be made to interpret the narrative. The effects of a changing rate on the mortality pattern as depicted by date-contour analysis and cohort analysis are outlined and the danger of basing biological theories on the mortality pattern revealed by date-contour analysis alone is indicated. This point is illustrated by reference to a recent theory that has been based on such an analysis.
文中已给出队列分析的历史，并指出关于该主题的大部分文献所涉及的概念，要么假定理想情况下毕业甚至外推是可取的，最好符合某种表达隐含地被视为“死亡率法则”的公式，要么假定无论死亡率是否存在固定模式，死亡风险强度在很大程度上由早年决定。有人提出观点认为，单独任何一个概念，或者两个概念一起，都是不充分的，可能会导致对先天与后天综合因素的不当评估，因为环境和治疗措施在不断变化。有人呼吁将队列分析技术用作一种叙述性或历史性技术，并综合从社会史、医学史和队列分析中获得的知识来解读这种叙述。概述了变化率对日期轮廓分析和队列分析所描绘的死亡率模式的影响，并指出仅基于日期轮廓分析所揭示的死亡率模式建立生物学理论的危险性。通过参考基于此类分析的近期理论来说明这一点。
