[A mathematical model of operative analysis and prognosis in outbreaks of hospital infections in newborn infants (exemplified by Klebsiella infection)].

The results of investigations on the development of a mathematical model (computer program) for the study (imitation) of outbreaks of hospital infections among newborns, caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae. The mathematical model, when "saturated" with real data of the outbreak, opens wide possibilities for the operative analysis and prognosis of morbidity and mortality levels among newborns at the intensive therapy departments of maternity clinics and hospitals. The possibilities of the model (computer program) are illustrated by the prognostic calculations of 3 outbreaks (hypothetical) of hospital infections at the intensive therapy department of the university clinic of Universitario del Valle, Cali (Colombia), resulting from violations of sanitary regulations by medical staff members.