Evaluating clinical case report data for SAR modeling of allergic contact dermatitis.

Clinical case reports can be important sources of information for alerting health professionals to the existence of possible health hazards. Isolated case reports, however, are weak evidence of causal relationships between exposure and disease because they do not provide an indication of the frequency of a particular exposure leading to a disease event. A database of chemicals causing allergic contact dermatitis (ACD) was compiled to discern structure-activity relationships. Clinical reports represented a considerable fraction of the data. Multiple Computer Automated Structure Evaluation (MultiCASE) was used to create a structure-activity model to be used in predicting the ACD activity of untested chemicals. We examined how the predictive ability of the model was influenced by including the case report data in the model. In addition, the model was used to predict the activity of chemicals identified from clinical case reports. The following results were obtained: When chemicals which were identified as dermal sensitizers by only one or two case reports were included in the model, the specificity of the model was reduced. Less than one half of these chemicals were predicted to be active by the most highly evidenced model. These chemicals possessed substructures not previously encountered by any of the models. We conclude that chemicals classified as sensitizers based on isolated clinical case reports be excluded from our model of ACD. The approach described here for evaluating activity of chemicals based on sparse evidence should be considered for use with other endpoints of toxicity when data are correspondingly limited.