The clinical assessment of cancer tests: a statistical approach to the prediction of "false positive" rates from controls.

As the sensitivity of the new in vitro cancer detection techniques increases, a larger number of "false positive" results can be expected from control populations apparently free from malignant disease at the time of the test. An attempt is made to predict the number of unexplained positives, together with the expected age and sex distribution, using published cancer registration statistics. The predicted numbers are compared with the observed numbers of unexplained positives in two clinical trials of the MEM test.