Pierce J P, Choi W S, Gilpin E A, Farkas A J, Merritt R K
Cancer Prevention and Control Program, Cancer Center, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla 92093-0901, USA.
Health Psychol. 1996 Sep;15(5):355-61. doi: 10.1037//0278-6133.15.5.355.
Smoking onset has 4 levels, with a "susceptibility" level preceding early experimentation. This study assessed the predictive validity of smoking susceptibility in a longitudinal study of a nationally representative sample of 4,500 adolescents who at baseline reported never having puffed on a cigarette. At follow-up 4 years later, 40% of the sample had experimented with smoking, and 8% had established a smoking habit. Baseline susceptibility to smoking, defined as the absence of a firm decision not to smoke, was a stronger independent predictor of experimentation than the presence of smokers among either family or the best friend network. However, susceptibility to smoking was not as important as exposure to smokers in distinguishing adolescents who progressed to established smoking from those who remained experimenters at follow-up.
吸烟起始有4个阶段，在早期尝试之前有一个“易感性”阶段。本研究在一项纵向研究中评估了吸烟易感性的预测效度，该研究以一个具有全国代表性的4500名青少年样本为对象，这些青少年在基线时报告从未吸过烟。4年后随访时，40%的样本尝试过吸烟，8%养成了吸烟习惯。基线时的吸烟易感性定义为没有坚决不吸烟的决定，与家庭或最好朋友网络中是否有吸烟者相比，它是尝试吸烟更强的独立预测因素。然而，在区分随访时发展为固定吸烟者和仍为尝试吸烟者的青少年方面，吸烟易感性不如接触吸烟者那么重要。
