A mechanism-mediated model for carcinogenicity: model content and prediction of the outcome of rodent carcinogenicity bioassays currently being conducted on 25 organic chemicals.

A hierarchical model consisting of quantitative structure-activity relationships based mainly on chemical reactivity was developed to predict the carcinogenicity of organic chemicals to rodents. The model is comprised of quantitative structure-activity relationships, QSARs based on hypothesized mechanisms of action, metabolism, and partitioning. Predictors included octanol/water partition coefficient, molecular size, atomic partial charge, bond angle strain, atomic acceptor delocalizibility, atomic radical superdelocalizibility, the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (LUMO) energy of hypothesized intermediate nitrenium ion of primary aromatic amines, difference in charge of ionized and unionized carbon-chlorine bonds, substituent size and pattern on polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, the distance between lone electron pairs over a rigid structure, and the presence of functionalities such as nitroso and hydrazine. The model correctly classified 96% of the carcinogens in the training set of 306 chemicals, and 90% of the carcinogens in the test set of 301 chemicals. The test set by chance contained 84% of the positive thio-containing chemicals. A QSAR for these chemicals was developed. This posttest set modified model correctly predicted 94% of the carcinogens in the test set. This model was used to predict the carcinogenicity of the 25 organic chemicals the U.S. National Toxicology Program was testing at the writing of this article.