A competing risks analysis of presenting AIDS diagnoses trends.

The proportions of gay men presenting with various AIDS diagnoses display temporal trends. In particular, the proportion of initial diagnoses reported as Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) has declined over time. Epidemiologists have hypothesized that (a) KS may require a cofactor, whose prevalence has declined over time, or (b) KS may have a shorter incubation period than other presenting diagnoses. We examine whether this latter hypothesis, considered in a competing risks framework, could account for the observed decline in KS. We nonparametrically estimate the relevant cause-specific hazard functions from the doubly-censored data of the San Francisco City Clinic Cohort by maximizing a roughness penalized likelihood using an EM algorithm. These estimates suggest that differences in the underlying cause-specific hazard functions account for a substantial portion of the observed diagnoses trends.