Ong C K, Nee S, Rambaut A, Harvey P H
Department of Zoology, Oxford University, U.K.
J Theor Biol. 1996 Sep 21;182(2):173-8. doi: 10.1006/jtbi.1996.0152.
Phylogenetic or family trees reconstructed from a sample of individuals belonging to a population or species can be used to infer population dynamic history. A method for making such inferences involves visual inspection of the graphs of the numbers of lineages in the phylogeny plotted against the times when they occur. One transformation of the lineages axis often produces a linear lineages-through-time plot if the population has been growing exponentially. However, that transformation is known to fail under certain circumstances. We report a series of simulation studies designed to determine the conditions under which the transformation fails. As long as the sample represents less than 0.5% of individuals in the total population, the Type 1 error rate is acceptable. This means that studies of virus populations are likely not to suffer from transformation failure, so long as a random sample from the population is represented. When the transformation does fail, the resultant lineages-through-time plot is very similar to a two-stage epidemic process.
从属于一个种群或物种的个体样本重建的系统发育树或家族树可用于推断种群动态历史。进行此类推断的一种方法是直观检查系统发育中谱系数量与它们出现时间的关系图。如果种群呈指数增长，谱系轴的一种变换通常会产生线性的谱系随时间变化图。然而，已知这种变换在某些情况下会失效。我们报告了一系列模拟研究，旨在确定变换失效的条件。只要样本占总人口个体的比例小于0.5%，I型错误率就是可接受的。这意味着，只要从种群中抽取随机样本，病毒种群的研究可能不会受到变换失效的影响。当变换确实失效时，所得的谱系随时间变化图与两阶段流行过程非常相似。
