Department of Pathology, University of California, San Diego, California 92103, USA.
Evolution. 2011 Feb;65(2):309-20. doi: 10.1111/j.1558-5646.2010.01159.x. Epub 2010 Nov 5.
The dynamics of species diversification rates are a key component of macroevolutionary patterns. Although not absolutely necessary, the use of divergence times inferred from sequence data has led to development of more powerful methods for inferring diversification rates. However, it is unclear what impact uncertainty in age estimates have on diversification rate inferences. Here, we quantify these effects using both Bayesian and frequentist methodology. Through simulation, we demonstrate that adding sequence data results in more precise estimates of internal node ages, but a reasonable approximation of these node ages is often sufficient to approach the theoretical minimum variance in speciation rate estimates. We also find that even crude estimates of divergence times increase the power of tests of diversification rate differences between sister clades. Finally, because Bayesian and frequentist methods provided similar assessments of error, novel Bayesian approaches may provide a useful framework for tests of diversification rates in more complex contexts than are addressed here.
物种多样化速率的动态变化是宏观进化模式的一个关键组成部分。虽然并非绝对必要，但使用从序列数据推断出的分歧时间，已经导致了更强大的方法来推断多样化速率。然而，不确定性在年龄估计上对多样化速率推断的影响尚不清楚。在这里，我们使用贝叶斯和频率方法来量化这些影响。通过模拟，我们证明添加序列数据会导致内部节点年龄的更精确估计，但这些节点年龄的合理近似通常足以接近物种形成率估计的理论最小方差。我们还发现，即使是对分歧时间的粗略估计也会增加姐妹分支之间多样化速率差异检验的功效。最后，由于贝叶斯和频率方法提供了对误差的相似评估，新的贝叶斯方法可能为更复杂情况下的多样化速率检验提供了一个有用的框架，而这里并未涉及这些情况。
