Stenseth N C, Bjørnstad O N, Falck W
Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Norway.
Proc Biol Sci. 1996 Nov 22;263(1376):1423-35. doi: 10.1098/rspb.1996.0208.
Current ecological information on periodically fluctuating microtine populations are demonstrated to support a hypothesis involving both predation and intrinsic self-regulation as necessary and sufficient factors for explaining the "microtine density cycle'. The structure of the cyclic time series is largely two dimensional with strong delayed density dependence. Together with recent field studies on rodent demography, our modelling suggests that trophic interaction is a likely candidate to generate the dimensionality observed for northern microtine rodent dynamics. It is shown that the trophic interaction must be fairly strong. This suggests that specialist predation is the most likely one among the classes of trophic interactions. We also argue that some - but not too strong - self-regulation must occur to generate the structure of the available time series on northern European microtines.
目前关于周期性波动的田鼠种群的生态信息表明，有一个假说得到了支持，该假说认为捕食和内在自我调节都是解释“田鼠密度周期”的必要且充分因素。周期性时间序列的结构在很大程度上是二维的，具有强烈的延迟密度依赖性。结合最近关于啮齿动物种群统计学的实地研究，我们的模型表明，营养相互作用可能是导致北欧田鼠动态中观察到的维度特征的原因。研究表明，营养相互作用必须相当强烈。这表明在各类营养相互作用中，专性捕食最有可能是其原因。我们还认为，必须发生一定程度（但不能太强）的自我调节，才能产生关于北欧田鼠的现有时间序列结构。
