Mariotti S, Cascioli R
Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Laboratorio di Epidemiologia e Biostatistica, Rome, Italy.
Stat Med. 1996 Dec 30;15(24):2669-87. doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0258(19961230)15:24<2669::AID-SIM498>3.0.CO;2-1.
The effects on back-calculated HIV diffusion estimates of the uncertainties in a number of factors that may potentially influence the estimation process are examined and compared. More specifically, the effect on HIV infection estimates of uncertainties in: (i) the sequence of periodical AIDS incidence cases; (ii) the estimation of the AIDS incubation period, including the influence of therapeutic treatment on the same; and (iii) the choice of a particular back-calculation method, including the stochastic uncertainty associated with each method, are examined. The choice of one particular back-calculation model over another, among three different methods considered, seems to be a minor component of the uncertainty, when compared to the uncertainty, due to all other sources. HIV incidence and prevalence in Italy for different risk categories are estimated.
研究并比较了一些可能潜在影响估计过程的因素的不确定性对反推的HIV传播估计值的影响。更具体地说，研究了以下不确定性对HIV感染估计值的影响：(i) 定期艾滋病发病病例的序列；(ii) 艾滋病潜伏期的估计，包括治疗对其的影响；以及(iii) 特定反推方法的选择，包括与每种方法相关的随机不确定性。与所有其他来源的不确定性相比，在考虑的三种不同方法中选择一种特定的反推模型而非另一种，似乎只是不确定性的一个次要组成部分。估计了意大利不同风险类别的HIV发病率和流行率。
