Dolk H, Elliott P, Shaddick G, Walls P, Thakrar B
Department of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, England.
Am J Epidemiol. 1997 Jan 1;145(1):10-7. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a009026.
A small area study of cancer incidence, 1974-1986, near 20 high power television (TV) and frequency modulation (FM) radio transmitters in Great Britain was carried out to place in context the findings of an earlier study around the Sutton Coldfield transmitter. The national database of postcoded cancer registrations was used with population and socioeconomic data from the 1981 census. Cancers examined were adult leukemias, skin melanoma, and bladder cancer, following the findings in the earlier study of significant declines in risk of these cancers with distance from the Sutton Coldfield transmitter. Childhood leukemia and brain cancer were also examined. Statistical analysis was performed for all transmitters combined, four overlapping groups of transmitters defined by their transmission characteristics, and for all transmitters separately. There were 3,305 adult leukemia cases from 0-10 km (observed/expected (O/E) ratio = 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-1.07). A decline in risk of adult leukemia was found for all transmitters combined (p = 0.05), two of the transmitter groups, and three of the single transmitters; for all transmitters combined, observed excess risk was no more than 15% at any distance up to 10 km, and there was no observed excess within 2 km of transmitters (O/E ratio = 0.97, 95% CI 0.78-1.21). For childhood leukemia and brain cancer, and adult skin melanoma and bladder cancer, results were not indicative of a decline in risk with distance from transmitters. The magnitude and pattern of risk found in the Sutton Coldfield study did not appear to be replicated. The authors conclude that the results at most give no more than very weak support to the Sutton Coldfield findings.
1974年至1986年期间,在英国20个大功率电视(TV)和调频(FM)无线电发射机附近开展了一项癌症发病率的小范围研究,以便将早期围绕萨顿科尔菲尔德发射机的研究结果置于背景中。使用了邮政编码化癌症登记的国家数据库以及1981年人口普查的人口和社会经济数据。根据早期研究中发现这些癌症的风险随与萨顿科尔菲尔德发射机距离的增加而显著下降的结果,研究的癌症类型为成人白血病、皮肤黑色素瘤和膀胱癌。还对儿童白血病和脑癌进行了研究。对所有发射机合并、根据发射特性定义的四个重叠发射机组以及所有单独的发射机进行了统计分析。在0至10公里范围内有3305例成人白血病病例(观察值/预期值(O/E)比率 = 1.03,95%置信区间(CI)为1.00 - 1.07)。发现所有发射机合并、两个发射机组以及三个单独发射机的成人白血病风险有所下降;对于所有发射机合并而言,在距离发射机10公里以内的任何距离处,观察到的超额风险均不超过15%,并且在距离发射机2公里范围内未观察到超额风险(O/E比率 = 0.97,95% CI为0.78 - 1.21)。对于儿童白血病和脑癌,以及成人皮肤黑色素瘤和膀胱癌,结果并未表明风险随与发射机距离的增加而下降。萨顿科尔菲尔德研究中发现的风险程度和模式似乎并未重现。作者得出结论,这些结果至多只是对萨顿科尔菲尔德的研究结果给予了非常微弱的支持。