Prevalence of delta F508 cystic fibrosis carriers in The Netherlands: logistic regression on sex, age, region of residence and number of offspring.

An average cystic fibrosis (CF) carrier frequency of 1 in 25 in Europe is cited in numerous reports, although a great variability in estimated prevalences has been found in different European populations. The estimates of these frequencies were based on numbers of CF patients before identification of the gene in 1989. Here we report the results of a study to determine the carrier frequency of the delta F508 mutation in The Netherlands by analyzing mouthwashes and matched blood samples from 11654 blood donors all over the country. We analyzed possible relationships between a number of theoretically explanatory variables and the delta F508 carrier frequency by means of univariate and multivariate logistic regression. These variables were: distance of the blood banks from the northeastern part of the country (distance); whether the blood donors knew that we were looking for a CF mutation; sex and age of the donor; and number of children of the donor (family size). We detected a delta F508 carrier frequency of 1 in 42 (95% CI 1/37-1/47) in The Netherlands. If we assume that the relative frequency of the delta F508 mutation among carriers and patients is comparable in The Netherlands, this gives an estimated overall CF carrier frequency of 1 in 32 (95% CI 1/28-1/36), significantly less than 1 in 25. The univariate logistic regression analysis of the effects of the explanatory variables on the carrier frequency revealed no significant relationships, except for an increase in carrier frequency with increasing distance from the northeastern region. In the multivariate analysis with all five independent variables, distance, age and family size were significantly related to the carrier frequency, but sex and CF information were not. There was a significant interaction between age and family size. In our final model, distance, age and family size were positively related to the carrier frequency, while the interaction of age with family size showed a negative relation. These results confirm that there is a gradient in gene frequency with low frequencies in the northeastern part of the country and high frequencies in the southern part. They also suggest a relation of age and family size with carrier frequency. This relation, however, is too complex to be explained by heterozygote advantage.