Smith E
Epidemiologisk afdeling, Statens Serum Institut, København.
Ugeskr Laeger. 1997 Jan 27;159(5):585-90.
Data from the national Danish surveillance of HIV and AIDS were analysed in order to describe the epidemiological trends and to estimate the HIV incidence and the future AIDS-epidemic. An increasing number of AIDS cases were women and were heterosexually acquired. A stable number of new HIV-infections were identified during the 1990's, among whom women represented an increasing proportion. Half of identified women were immigrants and 40% of all cases were heterosexually acquired. An increasing number of female AIDS cases and AIDS cases heterosexually acquired can be expected in the near future. Estimates showed that probably 5000 people have acquired HIV, among whom 1400 have died. The HIV incidence may be 236 cases per year, close to the number of AIDS deaths, giving a steady-state like situation. The number of living HIV-infected persons who are homosexual men is probably decreasing, while the number with heterosexually acquired HIV may increase. However, the HIV-incidence and -prevalence is still especially high among homosexual men.
对丹麦全国艾滋病毒和艾滋病监测数据进行了分析,以描述流行病学趋势,并估计艾滋病毒发病率和未来艾滋病疫情。艾滋病病例中女性数量不断增加,且通过异性传播感染。在20世纪90年代,新确诊的艾滋病毒感染病例数量稳定,其中女性所占比例不断上升。确诊女性中有一半是移民,所有病例中有40%是通过异性传播感染。预计在不久的将来,女性艾滋病病例和通过异性传播感染的艾滋病病例数量将不断增加。估计显示,可能有5000人感染了艾滋病毒,其中1400人已经死亡。艾滋病毒发病率可能为每年236例,接近艾滋病死亡人数,呈现出类似稳态的情况。感染艾滋病毒的同性恋男性存活人数可能在减少,而通过异性传播感染艾滋病毒的人数可能会增加。然而,艾滋病毒发病率和流行率在同性恋男性中仍然特别高。