Deaton A S, Paxson C H
Research Program in Development Studies, Princeton University, NJ 08544-1022, USA.
Demography. 1997 Feb;34(1):97-114.
This is a progress report on ongoing research into the effects of economic and population growth on national saving rates and inequality. The theoretical basis for the investigation is the life cycle model of saving and inequality. We report evidence that is conditional on the validity of the model, as well as evidence that casts doubt on it. Using time series of cross-sectional household surveys from Taiwan, Thailand, Britain, and the United States, we show that it is possible to force a life cycle interpretation on the data on consumption, income, and saving, but that the evidence is not consistent with large rate-of-growth effects, whereby economic and population growth enhances rates of national saving. The well-established cross-country link between economic growth and saving cannot be attributed to life cycle saving, nor will changes in economic or population growth exert large effects on saving within individual countries. There is evidence in favor of the life cycle model's prediction that within-cohort inequality of consumption and of total income--though not necessarily inequality of earnings--should increase with the age of the cohort. Decreases in the population growth rate redistribute population toward older, more unequal, cohorts, and can increase national inequality. We provide calculations on the magnitude of these effects.
这是一份关于经济和人口增长对国民储蓄率及不平等现象影响的正在进行的研究的进展报告。该调查的理论基础是储蓄与不平等的生命周期模型。我们报告了以该模型有效性为条件的证据，以及对其产生怀疑的证据。利用来自台湾、泰国、英国和美国的横截面家庭调查的时间序列，我们表明有可能对消费、收入和储蓄数据进行生命周期解释，但证据并不支持经济和人口增长会提高国民储蓄率这种大幅增长效应。经济增长与储蓄之间已确立的跨国联系不能归因于生命周期储蓄，经济或人口增长的变化也不会对单个国家的储蓄产生重大影响。有证据支持生命周期模型的预测，即同组人群内部消费和总收入的不平等——尽管不一定是收入不平等——应随着人群年龄的增长而增加。人口增长率的下降会使人口重新分布到年龄更大、不平等程度更高的人群中，并可能加剧国家层面的不平等。我们对这些影响的程度进行了计算。
